A Mathematical Model for the Impact of 3HP and Social Programme Implementation on the Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis: Study in Brazil.

In this paper, we presented a mathematical model for tuberculosis with treatment for latent tuberculosis cases and incorporated social implementations based on the impact they will have on tuberculosis incidence, cure, and recovery. We incorporated two variables containing the accumulated deaths and active cases into the model in order to study the incidence and mortality rate per year with the data reported by the model. Our objective is to study the impact of social program implementations and therapies on latent tuberculosis in particular the use of once-weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 12 weeks (3HP). The computational experimentation was performed with data from Brazil and for model calibration, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) with a Bayesian approach. We studied the effect of increasing the coverage of social programs, the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) and the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and the implementation of the 3HP as a substitution therapy for two rates of diagnosis and treatment of latent at 1% and 5%. Based of the data obtained by the model in the period 2023-2035, the FHS reported better results than BFP in the case of social implementations and 3HP with a higher rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent in the reduction of incidence and mortality rate and in cases and deaths avoided. With the objective of linking the social and biomedical implementations, we constructed two different scenarios with the rate of diagnosis and treatment. We verified with results reported by the model that with the social implementations studied and the 3HP with the highest rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent, the best results were obtained in comparison with the other independent and joint implementations. A reduction of the incidence by 36.54% with respect to the model with the current strategies and coverage was achieved, and a greater number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis was avoided.

Boletim Tuberculose 2022 / Tuberculosis Bulletin 2022

A tuberculose (TB) é um grande desafio para as autoridades de saúde pública no mundo. O Brasil é um dos 30 países onde a doença ainda está presente e, portanto, fazendo parte da lista e das prioridades nas agendas internacionais para estratégias de controle do agravo (BRASIL, 2020; 2021b). O plano nacional pelo fim da TB como problema de saúde pública 2021-2025 renova as metas a serem atingidas para melhoria das condições da doença, com redução da incidência para 90% e da mortalidade para 95%. Estas metas tomaram como base o resultado do ano de 2015 no país (BRASIL, 2021; 2022). Com a emergência sanitária causada pelo advento da COVID 19 houve piora das condições da tuberculose com queda dos diagnósticos em 2020 e, consequentemente, do registro de notificações, e aumento dos óbitos, causando piora nos indicadores tanto epidemiológicos quanto operacionais (BRASIL, 2022). O estado do Rio de Janeiro dentro deste quadro da TB situa-se em posição de destaque negativo, sendo o 2º em taxa de incidência e o 1º em taxa de mortalidade, segundo dados do último boletim de 2022 do Ministério da Saúde (BRASIL, 2022). Para que a situação da doença seja acompanhada por gestores e programas de saúde, bem como por toda comunidade científica e social é através do cálculo de seus principais indicadores, por meio dos sistemas oficiais de vigilância padronizados nacionalmente. Sendo os indicadores de morbidade extraídos da alimentação do Sistema de Informação de Agravo de Notificação ­ SINAN, com preenchimento da ficha de notificação/investigação da tuberculose. E para os dados de mortalidade o Sistema sobre Mortalidade ­ SIM, por meio do registro da Declaração de Óbitos.

Estudo do perfil epidemiológico da tuberculose na população idosa no estado de São Paulo entre os anos de 2018-2020 / Study of the epidemiological profile of tuberculosis in the elderly population in the state of São Paulo between the years 2018-2020 / Estudio del perfil epidemiológico de la tuberculosis en la población anciana del estado de São Paulo entre los años 2018- 2020

A tuberculose e um doença que causa preocupação para as autoridades de saúde pública. Quando analisamos o envelhecimento da população, os idosos são mais susceptíveis a várias doenças, entre elas a tuberculose. Um dos motivos dessa fragilidade na saúde e devido a sua imunossenescência, além das comorbinadas frequentes nesse grupo etário. Desta forma, objetivou realizar uma pesquisa quantitativa, descritiva, realizada por bases secundárias de dados online, no qual foram utilizados o Serviço de Informação do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS). Na pessquisa, foram inclusas pessoas de ambos os sexos com idade igual ou superior a 60 anos e com diagnóstico de Tuberculose no Estado de São Paulo entre os anos de 2018 a 2020. Nesta pesquisa pode se observar uma elevada ocorrência de tuberculose na população idosa principalmente no sexo masculino. Em relação a faixa etária com maior contaminados pela tuberculose foi entre 60-64 anos já a faixa etária com grande número de óbitos ocorreu 70-79 anos, por causa dessa doença.

Tuberculosis is a disease of concern to public health authorities. When we analyze the aging of the population, the elderly are more susceptible to several diseases, including tuberculosis. One of the reasons for this fragility in health is due to its immunosenescence, in addition to the frequent co-morbidities in this age group. In this way, it aimed to carry out a quantitative, descriptive research, carried out by secondary online databases, in which the Information Service of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) was used. In the research, people of both sexes aged 60 years or older and diagnosed with tuberculosis in the State of São Paulo between the years 2018 to 2020 were included. in male. Regarding the age group with the highest number of tuberculosis infections, it was between 60-64 years old, while the age group with a large number of deaths occurred between 70-79 years old, because of this disease.

La tuberculosis es una enfermedad que preocupa a las autoridades de salud pública. Cuando analizamos el envejecimiento de la población, los ancianos son más susceptibles de padecer diversas enfermedades, entre ellas la tuberculosis. Una de las razones de esta fragilidad en la salud se debe a su inmunosenescencia, además de las frecuentes comorbilidades en este grupo de edad. De esta forma, se pretendía realizar una investigación cuantitativa, descriptiva, realizada por bases secundarias de datos online, en las que se utilizó el Servicio de Información del Sistema Único de Salud (DATASUS). En la investigación se incluyeron personas de ambos sexos con 60 años o más y diagnosticadas de Tuberculosis en el Estado de São Paulo entre los años 2018 y 2020. En esta investigación se puede observar una alta ocurrencia de tuberculosis en la población de edad avanzada, especialmente en los varones. En relación con el grupo de edad con mayor contaminación por tuberculosis fue entre 60-64 años ya el grupo de edad con un gran número de muertes se produjo 70- 79 años, a causa de esta enfermedad.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among persons receiving second-line tuberculosis treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of 43 cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Drug resistance remains from among the most feared public health threats that commonly challenges tuberculosis treatment success. Since 2010, there have been rapid evolution and advances to second-line anti-tuberculosis treatments (SLD). However, evidence on impacts of these advances on incidence of mortality are scarce and conflicting. Estimating the number of people died from any cause during the follow-up period of SLD as the incidence proportion of all-cause mortality is the most informative way of appraising the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment outcome. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and its predictors among persons receiving the SLD in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We systematically identified relevant studies published between January, 2010 and March, 2020, by searching PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane library, Google scholar, and Health Technology Assessment. Eligible English-language publications reported on death and/or its predictors among persons receiving SLD, but those publications that reported death among persons treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were excluded. Study features, patients' clinical characteristics, and incidence and/or predictors of mortality were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled incidence of mortality was estimated as percentage rate while risks of the individual predictors were appraised based on their independent associations with the mortality outcome. RESULTS: A total of 43 studies were reviewed that revealed 31,525 patients and 4,976 deaths. The pooled incidence of mortality was 17% (95% CI: 15%-18%; I2 = 91.40; P = 0.00). The studies used varied models in identifying predictors of mortality. They found diagnoses of clinical conditions (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.82-3.05); excessive substance use (RR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.78-3.67); HIV and other comorbidities (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.65-2.32); resistance to SLD (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37-2.23); and male sex (RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.44) as consistent predictors of the mortality. Few individual studies also reported an increased incidence of mortality among persons initiated with the SLD after a month delay (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.98-2.60) and those persons with history of tuberculosis (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32). CONCLUSIONS: We found about one in six persons who received SLD in sub-Saharan Africa had died in the last decade. This incidence of mortality among the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in the sub-Saharan Africa mirrors the global average. Nevertheless, it was considerably high among the patients who had comorbidities; who were diagnosed with other clinical conditions; who had resistance to SLD; who were males and substance users. Therefore, modified measures involving shorter SLD regimens fortified with newer or repurposed drugs, differentiated care approaches, and support of substance use rehabilitation programs can help improve the treatment outcome of persons with the drug-resistant tuberculosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020160473; PROSPERO.

Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis.

BACKGROUND: The tuberculosis targets for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a 90% reduction in tuberculosis deaths by 2030, compared with 2015, but meeting this target now seems highly improbable. To assess the economic impact of not meeting the target until 2045, we estimated full-income losses in 120 countries, including those due to excess deaths resulting from COVID-19-related disruptions to tuberculosis services, for the period 2020-50. METHODS: Annual mortality risk changes at each age in each year from 2020 to 2050 were estimated for 120 countries. This risk change was then converted to full-income risk by calculating a population-level mortality risk change and multiplying it by the value of a statistical life-year in each country and year. As a comparator, we assumed that current rates of tuberculosis continue to decline through the period of analysis. We calculated the full-income losses, and mean life expectancy losses per person, at birth and at age 35 years, under scenarios in which the SDG targets are met in 2030 and in 2045. We defined the cost of inaction as the difference in full-income losses and tuberculosis mortality between these two scenarios. FINDINGS: From 2020 to 2050, based on the current annual decrease in tuberculosis deaths of 2%, 31·8 million tuberculosis deaths (95% uncertainty interval 25·2 million-39·5 million) are estimated to occur, corresponding to an economic loss of US$17·5 trillion (14·9 trillion-20·4 trillion). If the SDG tuberculosis mortality target is met in 2030, 23·8 million tuberculosis deaths (18·9 million-29·5 million) and $13·1 trillion (11·2 trillion-15·3 trillion) in economic losses can be avoided. If the target is met in 2045, 18·1 million tuberculosis deaths (14·3 million-22·4 million) and $10·2 trillion (8·7 trillion-11·8 trillion) can be avoided. The cost of inaction of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045 (vs 2030) is, therefore, 5·7 million tuberculosis deaths (5·1 million-8·1 million) and $3·0 trillion (2·5 trillion-3·5 trillion) in economic losses. COVID-19-related disruptions add $290·3 billion (260·2 billion-570·1 billion) to this cost. INTERPRETATION: Failure to achieve the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030 will lead to profound economic and health losses. The effects of delay will be greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Affected countries, donor nations, and the private sector should redouble efforts to finance tuberculosis programmes and research because the economic dividend of such strategies is likely to be substantial. FUNDING: None.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018. METHODS: Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death. RESULTS: Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias. CONCLUSIONS: This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios. FINDINGS: Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years. INTERPRETATION: The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Tuberculosis cases with post-mortem notification in Brazil, 2014: a descriptive study based on surveillance data. / Casos de tuberculose com notificação após o óbito no Brasil, 2014: um estudo descritivo com base nos dados de vigilância.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem in Brazil in 2014. METHODS: This is a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem. Data resulted from linkage of the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System-TB (SINAN-TB) and the Mortality Information System (SIM), and were described according to underlying cause of death: tuberculosis, AIDS and other. RESULTS: In the 2,703 tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem, a higher proportion was found of people of the male sex (73.5%), aged over 39 (80.8%), <8 years of schooling (66.5%), of Black and brown race/skin color (62.8%), with the pulmonary clinical form of tuberculosis (75.2%); there was also a higher proportion of cases notified by the public health service (57.6%) and in municipalities with HDI-M >0.7 (66.6%). CONCLUSION: The characteristics described of people with post-mortem notification and the magnitude of this outcome suggest weaknesses in tuberculosis care and surveillance services.

Análisis de la mortalidad por tuberculosis, en Costa Rica / Tuberculosis Mortality Analysis in Costa Rica

Resumen Justificación: La mortalidad por tuberculosis reúne características para ser estudiada con un enfoque de causa básica y de causa múltiple, debido a que compite frecuentemente con otras patologías como causa básica de muerte. Los objetivos de este estudio son caracterizar las defunciones por tuberculosis en ambas formas, utilizando las variables: tiempo, lugar y persona; cuantificar la concordancia entre las defunciones por tuberculosis registradas por el Programa Institucional, y el certificado de defunción, e identificar la contribución de esta enfermedad en la mortalidad con un enfoque multicausal, en Costa Rica, durante el periodo 2016-2019. Materiales y métodos: Estudio descriptivo. La población de estudio correspondió a todas las defunciones por tuberculosis y con tuberculosis registradas en el libro de registro del programa de de la Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social, ocurridas en 2016 - 2019. Por medio del expediente de salud se depuraron las defunciones registradas y se categorizaron de acuerdo con la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades 10 en defunciones por tuberculosis (A15 al A19), tuberculosis / virus de inmunodeficiencia humana (A15 al A19-B24 ), tuberculosis / diabetes mellitus (A15 al A19-E10,E11), tuberculosis / cáncer (A15 al A19-C34,22,18) y tuberculosis / otras (A15 al A19- J44,J45). En el certificado de defunción se revisó la secuencia informada de las causas de muerte y la causa contribuyente, para identificar la tuberculosis como causa básica o múltiple. Se agruparon los resultados por edad y se calculó: porcentajes, tasas, proporción de concordancia observada, proporción de concordancia esperada y el índice de Kappa (va de 0 a 1, y el 1 representa la máxima concordancia). Resultados: Durante el periodo de estudio (4 años), se registró un total de 113 defunciones, lo que corresponde a una tasa de mortalidad de 0,57 / 100 000 hab.; de éstas, el 73% (83) correspondió a personas del sexo masculino y el 27 %, al sexo femenino. El mayor número de defunciones ocurrió principalmente en el grupo de mayores de 65 años, tanto para los hombres como para las mujeres. La proporción de concordancia observada correspondió a un 0,77 %, y la proporción de concordancia esperada a un 26%. Al ser la proporción de concordancia observada mayor que la esperada, y con un índice de Kappa de 0,70, concluimos que la concordancia existente es considerable y se atribuye más a ser causal que al azar. El análisis de mortalidad de tubercolosis por causa múltiple no mostró cambios en la tasa de mortalidad, tomando en cuenta este evento como causa básica de defunción o como causa múltiple. Conclusiones: Con base en los resultados del estudio, se evidencia que existe una concordancia considerable entre el registro de las defunciones por tuberculosis anotadas en el libro del programa institucional y el certificado de defunción.

Abstract Background: Tuberculosis mortality has the characteristics to be studied as a basic and multiple cause of death, because it can be compared with other pathologies as a basic cause of death. The goals of this study are to characterize deaths from tuberculosis including basic and multiple cause of death using time, place and person as variables, to measure the concordance of deaths from tuberculosis recorded in the Institutional Program Record Book and death certificate; and to identify the contribution of this disease in mortality with a multicausal approach, in Costa Rica during the period 2016-2019. Methods: Descriptive study. The study population corresponded to all deaths from tuberculosis and tuberculosis recorded in the Program Registration Book of the Social Security Costa Rican entity, that occurred in the period between 2016 and 2019. Using the health files, the deaths registered in the Program Registration Book were purified and categorized according to International Classification of Diseases 10 in deaths due to tuberculosis (A15 through A19), tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus (A15 through A19-B24), tuberculosis/diabetes mellitus (A15 through A19-E10, E11), tuberculosis/cancer (A15 through A19 -C34,22,18) and tuberculosis/others (A15 through A19-J44, J45). In the death certificate, the reported sequence of the causes of death and the contributing cause to identify tuberculosis as a basic or multiple cause were reviewed. Percentages, rates, observed concordance ratio, expected concordance ratio and Kappa index were calculated (value from 0 to 1, 1 representing the maximum concordance). Results: During the study period (4 years), a total of 113 deaths were registered, with a mortality rate of 0.57/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 73% (83) corresponded to the male sex and 27% (30) to the female sex. The highest number of deaths occurred mainly in the group of people over 65 years, for both men and women. The observed concordance ratio corresponded to 0.77% and the expected concordance ratio to 26%. Since the observed concordance ratio is greater than expected concordance ratio and when obtaining a Kappa index of 0.70, it is concluded that the existing concordance is attributed more causally than by chance. The multiple cause tuberculosis mortality analysis did not show changes in the mortality rate, taking this event into account only as a basic cause of death or as a multiple cause. Conclusions: The study made it possible to show that there is a considerable concordance between the register of deaths from tuberculosis recorded in the register of the Institutional Program and the death certificate.

Impact of Effective Global Tuberculosis Control on Health and Economic Outcomes in the United States.

Rationale: Most U.S. residents who develop tuberculosis (TB) were born abroad, and U.S. TB incidence is increasingly driven by infection risks in other countries.Objectives: To estimate the potential impact of effective global TB control on health and economic outcomes in the United States.Methods: We estimated outcomes using linked mathematical models of TB epidemiology in the United States and migrants' birth countries. A base-case scenario extrapolated country-specific TB incidence trends. We compared this with scenarios in which countries achieve 90% TB incidence reductions between 2015 and 2035, as targeted by the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy ("effective global TB control"). We also considered pessimistic scenarios of flat TB incidence trends in individual countries.Measurements and Main Results: We estimated TB cases, deaths, and costs and the total economic burden of TB in the United States. Compared with the base-case scenario, effective global TB control would avert 40,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 29,000-55,000) TB cases in the United States in 2020-2035. TB incidence rates in 2035 would be 43% (95% uncertainty interval, 34-54%) lower than in the base-case scenario, and 49% (95% uncertainty interval, 44-55%) lower than in 2020. Summed over 2020-2035, this represents 0.8 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 0.6-1.0 billion dollars) in averted healthcare costs and $2.5 billion dollars (95% uncertainty interval, 1.7-3.6 billion dollars) in productivity gains. The total U.S. economic burden of TB (including the value of averted TB deaths) would be 21% (95% uncertainty interval, 16-28%) lower (18 billion dollars [95% uncertainty level, 8-32 billion dollars]).Conclusions: In addition to producing major health benefits for high-burden countries, strengthened efforts to achieve effective global TB control could produce substantial health and economic benefits for the United States.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. METHODS: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. INTERPRETATION: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

Characterization of deaths and therapeutic itineraries investigated by the Porto Alegre AIDS Mortality Committee, Brazil, in 2015. / Caracterização dos óbitos e dos itinerários terapêuticos investigados pelo Comitê Municipal de Mortalidade por Aids de Porto Alegre em 2015.

OBJECTIVE: to characterize AIDS deaths eligible for Porto Alegre AIDS Mortality Committee (AIDSMC) investigation, Brazil, in 2015, and their therapeutic itineraries. METHODS: this was a descriptive study using secondary data from surveillance information systems and AIDSMC investigation forms. RESULTS: out of 336 deaths from AIDS-related causes, 113 (33.6%) were considered avoidable, of which 52 were analyzed by AIDSMC; there was predominance of males (30/52), low schooling level (29/52 incomplete elementary education), and less than 2 years between HIV infection diagnosis and death (28/52); tuberculosis was the most frequent cause of death (17/52); and in 50/52 cases at least one therapeutic itinerary inadequacy was identified. CONCLUSION: avoidable deaths of people with AIDS occurred mostly in men, those with low education level, those with recent HIV diagnosis and most deaths were due to tuberculosis.

Optimizing hospital distribution across districts to reduce tuberculosis fatalities.

The spatial distributions of diverse facilities are often understood in terms of the optimization of the commute distance or the economic profit. Incorporating more general objective functions into such optimization framework may be useful, helping the policy decisions to meet various social and economic demands. As an example, we consider how hospitals should be distributed to minimize the total fatalities of tuberculosis (TB). The empirical data of Korea shows that the fatality rate of TB in a district decreases with the areal density of hospitals, implying their correlation and the possibility of reducing the nationwide fatalities by adjusting the hospital distribution across districts. Approximating the fatality rate by the probability of a patient not to visit a hospital in her/his residential district for the duration period of TB and evaluating the latter probability in the random-walk framework, we obtain the fatality rate as an exponential function of the hospital density with a characteristic constant related to each district's effective lattice constant estimable empirically. This leads us to the optimal hospital distribution which finds the hospital density in a district to be a logarithmic function of the rescaled patient density. The total fatalities is reduced by 13% with this optimum. The current hospital density deviates from the optimized one in different manners from district to district, which is analyzed in the proposed model framework. The assumptions and limitations of our study are also discussed.

Universal health coverage and tuberculosis care in India in the times of Covid-19: Aligning Ayushman Bharat (National Health Assurance Scheme) to improve case detection, reduce deaths and catastrophic health expenditure.

India has the largest global burden of new cases of tuberculosis (TB) and deaths due to TB. These occur predominantly in the poor who suffer catastrophic costs during diagnosis and treatment. The National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme has ambitious goals of 80% reduction of incidence of TB, 90% reduction in mortality due to TB by 2025 and 0% occurrence of catastrophic costs to households affected by TB by 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting disruption to TB services are expected to worsen the situation. There are gaps in case finding at the peripheral level and access to care at the higher level for patients with TB. An estimated 32% patients with active TB do not access diagnostic services, while catastrophic costs associated with hospitalization are a barrier to access for seriously ill patients. Deaths due to TB in India occur largely at home and not in medical facilities, and are preventable with appropriate inpatient care. The Ayushman Bharat scheme with its Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs) and coverage for inpatient care under the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) can facilitate, the achievement of the goals of TB elimination. The HWCs provide an opportunity to close the case-finding gap as first point of contact by enabling sputum transport services to the designated microscopy centres. This will facilitate case detection, reduce diagnostic delays, and decrease community transmission and the incidence of TB. The benefit package of PM-JAY can cover patients with pulmonary TB, inpatient evaluation for other forms of TB, enhance the allocation for treatment and cover management of comorbid conditions such as severe undernutrition, anaemia, HIV and diabetes.

Pulmonary vs. extra-pulmonary tuberculosis hospitalizations in the US [1998-2014].

BACKGROUND: Few studies have explored the relative burden and trends in pulmonary (PTB) vs. extra-pulmonary (EPTB) tuberculosis in the United States using a nationally representative sample. METHODS: This study examined trends in hospitalization rates, length-of-stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality and inflation-adjusted charges, for PTB vs. EPTB using the Nationwide/National Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 1998 to 2014. Descriptive and multivariable analyses (linear, negative binomial and logistic) were utilized adjusting for demographics, co-morbidity and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: During the study period there were a survey-adjusted, estimated 258,631 PTB (75.5%), 76,476 EPTB (22.3%) and 7552 concurrent PTB and EPTB (2.2%) discharges. Whites accounted for 27.6% of PTB, 21.9% of EPTB and 17.6% of concurrent discharges; and self-pay or no insurance accounted for 22.2%, 18.4%, and 25.9%, respectively. EPTB was more common among blacks (22.5%), and combined TB more common among Hispanics (24.8%). Mean LOS was 11.4 days, 13.2 days, and 19.5 days; with mean nominal charges of $48,031, $62,255, and $89,364 for PTB, EPTB and combined TB respectively. Inpatient mortality for all three groups was approximately 5.7%. Miliary TB and TB of meninges and central nervous system were positively associated with mortality (odds ratios of 2.44 and 2.11, respectively), as was alcohol abuse (OR 1.21). Trend analyses showed decreased hospitalizations for all TB types, no change in LOS trends, decreased mortality for PTB and ETB and increased charges for PTB and ETB from 1998 to 2014. Increased utilization, higher charges and higher risk of mortality (to some extent) among the EPTB cases warrant improved methods for screening, diagnosis and treatment. CONCLUSION: Though rates of TB hospitalization are declining, EPTB is becoming relatively more common and is more costly compared to pulmonary TB. Screening methods that focus on identification of ETB contrary to current practice guidelines are needed to aid ETB case finding.

Casos de tuberculose com notificação após o óbito no Brasil, 2014: um estudo descritivo com base nos dados de vigilância / Casos de tuberculosis notificados después del óbito en Brasil, 2014: un estudio descriptivo basado en datos de vigilância / Tuberculosis cases with post-mortem notification in Brazil, 2014: a descriptive study based on surveillance data

Objetivo: Caracterizar os casos com notificação pós-óbito da tuberculose no Brasil em 2014. Métodos: Estudo descritivo dos casos de tuberculose com notificação pós-óbito. Os dados são resultantes da vinculação do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan-TB) com o Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM), e foram descritos segundo causa básica de óbito: tuberculose, aids e outras. Resultados: Nos 2.703 casos de tuberculose com notificação pós-óbito, observou-se maior proporção de pessoas do sexo masculino (73,5%), com mais de 39 anos de idade (80,8%), com escolaridade <8 anos de estudo (66,5%), de raça/cor da pele negra e parda (62,8%), que adoeceram de tuberculose na forma clínica pulmonar (75,2%); também prevaleceram notificações pelo serviço público (57,6%) e em municípios com índice de desenvolvimento humano >0,7 (66,6%). Conclusão: As características descritas das pessoas notificadas pós-óbito e a magnitude desse desfecho sugerem fragilidades dos serviços de atenção e vigilância da tuberculose

Objetivo: Caracterizar los casos con notificación de tuberculosis post mortem en Brasil en 2014. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo de casos de tuberculosis con notificación post mortem. Los datos son resultantes de la vinculación del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación (Sinan-TB) y Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM); y fueron descritos de acuerdo con la causa básica de muerte: tuberculosis, sida y otros. Resultados: De los 2.703 casos de tuberculosis con notificación post mortem, hubo una mayor proporción de hombres (73,5%), >39 años de edad (80,8%), <8 años de escolaridad (66,5%), raza negra/parda (62,8%), que enfermaron con la forma clínica pulmonar (75,2%), notificados por el servicio público (57,6%) y de municipios con índice de desarrollo humano >0,7 (66,6%). Conclusión: Las características descritas de las personas notificadas post mortem y la magnitud de este resultado sugieren fragilidades en los servicios de atención y vigilancia de la tuberculosis.

Objective: To characterize tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem in Brazil in 2014. Methods: This is a descriptive study of tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem. Data resulted from linkage of the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System-TB (SINAN-TB) and the Mortality Information System (SIM), and were described according to underlying cause of death: tuberculosis, AIDS and other. Results: In the 2,703 tuberculosis cases notified at post-mortem, a higher proportion was found of people of the male sex (73.5%), aged over 39 (80.8%), <8 years of schooling (66.5%), of Black and brown race/skin color (62.8%), with the pulmonary clinical form of tuberculosis (75.2%); there was also a higher proportion of cases notified by the public health service (57.6%) and in municipalities with HDI-M >0.7 (66.6%). Conclusion: The characteristics described of people with post-mortem notification and the magnitude of this outcome suggest weaknesses in tuberculosis care and surveillance services.